BLACK FRIDAY BLIP

HAS BLK FRI BECOME A BIG FRAUD?

We have been asked to reconcile recent yrs’ Blk Fri sales data. We use Shopper Trak’s data which are often quoted in publications such as Bloomberg Biz, NYT & USA2Day.BF by our view has become a “moving target.” What clearly was BF coming “out of” the Great Recession (starting in Dec 2007 and technically missing THXGVNG by a few days, but probably not) has CHANGED to include THXGVNG & even Sat & Sun± “after” Turkey Day. Furthermore, BF (as it has been expanded both backwards & forwards) now is frequently called Blk Fri Wknd. Walmart has even expanded it to “Blk Fri Week” “& on & on & on”. The issue really is that BF itself is a dying breed b/c of Millennials, b/c of Cyber Monday, b/c in essence foot traffic is falling, and also b/c niche/small/independent retailers are starting to have an impact on the “Big Boxers.” The table below reflects the CHANGING scenario of trying to make BF look more robust than it really is by NOT properly labeling the new BF as really being BF AND THXGVNG (not, just BF). For example,ShopperTrak called $12.3 B as “BF sales” with an increase of 2.3%. NOT SO b/c the reported sales for BF 2012 was $11.2 B which spins to a 9.8% increase. That’s BS since the REPORTED increase yr over yr was 2.3% (2013 over 2012). 2.3% ONLY works however, if BF was $12.0 B which means the $11.2 B reported for 2012 was ONLY BF w/oTHXGVNG. AND, as such it is NOT comparable to 2013’s $$. There is little doubt that reporting has been changed to accommodate “BF’s” growth where NONE really occurred!Sometimes stats lie and sometimes liars statistic.

Year

BLK FRIDAY SALES ($ B)

TOATL

Δ

ONLINE

Δ

2007

$10.30

$0.531

2008

$10.60

2.9%

$0.534

0.6%

2009

$10.66

0.6%

$0.595

11.4%

2010

$10.69

0.3%

$0.648

8.9%

2011

$11.40

6.6%

$0.816

25.9%

2012

$11.20

-1.8%

$1.042

27.7%

2013

$12.30

9.8%

$1.198

15.0%

Source: ShopperTrak, comScore, Inc.

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About bernacmd

For over 24 years, University of Detroit Mercy Marketing Professor Michael Bernacchi, Ph.D., J.D, has produced "uNDER tHE mIKE-rOSCOPE", a newsletter discussing current "marketing and advertising¹s bends, trends & ends." A well-know fixture in Detroit and national media, UDM's marketing guru has made several appearances on CNN's "Talk Back Live," the Voice of America worldwide radio network (VOA), ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and on the pages of Sports Illustrated, Time, TV Guide, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, to name a few. At University of Detroit Mercy, he has taught courses in Marketing Management, Consumer Behavior, Marketing Communications, Research and Corporate Social Responsibility and Sports and Entertainment Marketing. Michael Bernacchi can be reached at 313-993-1116 or bernacmd@udmercy.edu. Please appropriately attribute the following for their work on uNDER tHE mIKE-rOSCOPE: Yen Ju Lee Robert Rouse Vidhyasagar Natarajan Eric Baumgardner & Ian Young
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