V-DAY 2015: WE REMEMBER OUR $IGNIFICANT$, FAMILY & FRIEND$ WITH JEWELRY, AN EVENING OUT & PO$IE$!

$18.9 B: WOW!

Suppose, we were to tell you that there was a “minor” holiday where there was NO time off from school or work AND no real religious revelry either, what would you think? Take 2 aspirins and go to bed, RIGHT? Well, suppose we also said that this “minor league” celebration that was worth $18.9B to the economy (2015) after its predicted growth of robust 9.25% over 2014 (Natl Retail Fed), occurred. WOW!

This time of the year we see “dog & pony” shows by Vt Bears, FTD Florists, Kay Jewelers etc. Of America’s 6 non Xmas/H-kah holidays (Superbowl, V-Day, St. Pats Day, Easter, Independence Day, & H-ween) V-Day is the 2nd most robust holiday for spending (H-ween is #1). As America opens its hearts with messages of love and affection, it also opens its wallets and pocketbks with messages of gifting connections.

$IGNIFICANT$, FAMILY, KID$ & PET$!?

For Whom the $pending Toll$1? TOT $pent &

% Growth ’15 vs ’14 per Rec’r (See T-1)

Significant Others $11.70 B 16.11%
Other Family $3.50 B 7.36%
Kids, Classmates $.85 B 2.44%
Pets 2 $.70 B -1.41%
Friends $.95 B -2.06%
Co-Workers $.63 B -25.00%
1 Others -3.33% omitted b/c of its lack of specificity

2 Special Pet Spending V-Day Scope is next.

There is no year w/i memory where the growth in the spending on Significant Others for V-Day has been any greater than this year! Is it b/c of the economy is robust? Is it b/c we want to show our appreciation to the one who brought us to the dance? WUDDAUTHINK? No matter, V-Day’s growth of 9.25% (’15 over ‘14) is extraordinary So WHO will be gifted (T-1) with WHAT (T-2). To determine these answers we use NRF data.

Gift$ We Shall Give? TOT $pent &

% Growth ’15 vs ’14 per Gift (See T-2)

Gift Cards $1.47 B 26.51%
Jewelry $4.83 B 22.42%
Candy $1.69 B 21.23%
Clothing $1.96 B 13.50%
Flowers $2.09 B 8.11%
Evening Out $3.63 B 2.31%

The gifts given in the table above are ranked by biggest % growth yr over yr with Gift Cards & Jewelry leading the way. The growth in Gift Cards is expected. The growth in Jewelry is NOT SO MUCH. Our interpretation is simple. We are giving GEMS to our GEMS (Significants) in this a JEWEL of our economy. It’s sort of a GEMS to GEMS scenario!

Table 3 below tells the “rest of the story”. It completes the GEMS to GEMS story on V-Day. How fitting is it that the retail destinations that are expected to grow their traffic this yr, the most are specialty stores or boutiques led by Jewelry Stores (+19%) WOW! #2 is Specialty Stores (+9.7%) and Dept Stores are #3 (+6.1%)? How fitting?

T-1: V-DAY GIFTING 2 WHOM? (by Billions of $$)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Δ 15-14 Δ 15-13 Δ 15-12 Δ 15-11
% Celebrating 58.10% 59.40% 59.90% 53.80% 54.90% 2.04% -8.35% -7.58% -7.40%
Net Avg of Spenders
Significants $ 9.32 $ 10.33 $ 10.50 $ 10.08 $ 11.70 16.11% 11.47% 13.30% 8.11%
% of TOT 61.93%
Other Fam $ 3.07 $   3.52 $   3.77 $   3.26 $   3.50 7.36% -7.16% -0.57% 6.33%
% of TOT 18.52%
Friends $ 0.85 $   0.97 $   1.21 $   0.97 $   0.95 -2.06% -21.49% -2.06% 13.98%
% of TOT 5.03%
Kids/Classmates $ 0.67 $   0.81 $   0.85 $   0.82 $   0.84 2.44% -1.18% 3.70% 22.02%
% of TOT 4.44%
Co-Workers $ 0.46 $   0.52 $   0.73 $   0.84 $   0.63 -25.00% -13.70% 21.15% 82.21%
% of TOT 3.33%
Pets $ 0.68 $   0.63 $   0.82 $   0.71 $   0.70 -1.41% -14.63% 11.11% 4.26%
% of TOT 3.70%
Others $ 0.65 $   0.79 $   0.77 $   0.60 $   0.62 3.33% -19.48% -21.52% -8.12%
% of TOT 3.28%
TOTAL $$ B $15.7 $ 17.60 $ 18.60 $ 17.30 $ 18.90 9.25% 1.61% 7.39% 10.12%
T-2: V-Day Gifting of WHAT? (by billions of $$)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Δ 15-14 Δ 15-13 Δ 15-12 Δ 15-11
Jewelry $3.54 $4.12 $4.40 $3.95 $   4.83 22.42% 9.72% 17.20% 36.54%
% Buying 17.30% 18.90% 19.70% 18.90% 21.10%
Evening Out $3.36 $3.57 $3.98 $3.55 $   3.63 2.31% -8.70% 1.57% 8.04%
% Buying 34.60% 35.60% 36.20% 37.00% 35.10%
Flowers $1.71 $1.88 $1.92 $1.94 $   2.09 8.11% 9.07% 11.33% 22.68%
% Buying 34.30% 36.00% 36.60% 37.30% 37.80%
Clothing $1.62 $1.45 $1.63 $1.73 $   1.96 13.50% 20.04% 34.92% 20.93%
% Buying 14.40% 14.60% 15.60% 15.80% 16.30%
Candy $1.45 $1.51 $1.66 $1.39 $   1.69 21.23% 1.99% 11.77% 16.31%
% Buying 47.50% 50.50% 51.00% 48.70% 53.20%
Gift Cards $1.52 $1.17 $1.46 $1.16 $   1.47 26.51% 0.89% 25.21% -2.97%
% Buying 12.60% 13.30% 15.00% 14.00% 14.80%
Greet Card $1.09 $0.97 $1.18 $1.03 $   1.05 1.75% -11.57% 8.39% -4.21%
% Buying 52.10% 52.00% 54.70% 51.20% 51.40%
Other $ 2.600 $ 2.900 $ 2.400 $2.56 $2.20 -14.06% -8.33% -24.14% -15.38%
TOTAL $$ B $16.9 $17.6 $18.6 $17.3 $ 18.90 9.25% 1.61% 7.39% 11.83%
T-3: V-Day Gift – WHERE PURCHASE?
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Δ 15-14 Δ 15-13 Δ 15-12 Δ 15-11
Dept Store 30.50% 33.60% 33.20% 34.40% 36.50% 6.10% 9.94% 8.63% 19.67%
Discounters 36.60% 37.00% 39.60% 34.70% 35.20% 1.44% -11.11% -4.86% -3.83%
Online 18.10% 19.30% 26.30% 26.10% 25.10% -3.83% -4.56% 30.05% 38.67%
Other Spec Store 19.40% 20.20% 22.90% 22.70% 19.40% -4.54% -15.28% -3.96% 0.00%
Florist 16.80% 17.80% 19.60% 19.30% 18.70% -3.11% -4.59% 5.06% 11.31%
Local/Small Biz 13.30%
Jewelry Store 9.50% 10.60% 11.20% 10.00% 11.90% 19.00% 6.25% 12.26% 25.26%
Spec Cl’thing Str 6.00% 6.60% 7.50% 7.20% 7.90% 9.72% 5.33% 19.70% 31.67%
Catalog 1.50% 2.20% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% -25.00% -42.31% -31.82% 0.00%
Other 10.30% 9.00% 9.70% 11.10% 8.40% -24.32% -13.40% -6.67% -18.45%
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About bernacmd

For over 24 years, University of Detroit Mercy Marketing Professor Michael Bernacchi, Ph.D., J.D, has produced "uNDER tHE mIKE-rOSCOPE", a newsletter discussing current "marketing and advertising¹s bends, trends & ends." A well-know fixture in Detroit and national media, UDM's marketing guru has made several appearances on CNN's "Talk Back Live," the Voice of America worldwide radio network (VOA), ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and on the pages of Sports Illustrated, Time, TV Guide, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, to name a few. At University of Detroit Mercy, he has taught courses in Marketing Management, Consumer Behavior, Marketing Communications, Research and Corporate Social Responsibility and Sports and Entertainment Marketing. Michael Bernacchi can be reached at 313-993-1116 or bernacmd@udmercy.edu. Please appropriately attribute the following for their work on uNDER tHE mIKE-rOSCOPE: Yen Ju Lee Robert Rouse Vidhyasagar Natarajan Eric Baumgardner & Ian Young
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