HER GREAT $PIRIT & HIS GRAND $PENDNG!  

 

T-1: Females Win   T-2: Males Win
Category F M Diff   Category F M Diff
Celebrate H-ween 65% 63% F +2%   Throw a Party 29% 34% M +5%
Costume Dress 45% 43% F +2%   Haunted Home visit 17% 20% M +3%
Pet Costume Dress 14% 12% F +2%   Costume Spending $ 24.00 $ 31.00 M +29%
Hand Out Candy 68% 67% F +1%   Candy Buying $ 21.00 $ 26.00 M +24%
Carve a Pumpkin 43% 39% F +4%   Decoration Buying $ 18.00 $ 23.00 M +22%
Trick or Treating 30% 25% F +5%   Greeting Card Buying $  3.00 $  4.00 M +33%
Yard Decoration 52% 38% F +14%   TOTAL SPENDING $ 65.00 $ 84.00 M +37%

 

In examining the diff b/t women and men in the H-weening (Gendernomics), we find that females stoke the emotional engine while men want to party more and fuel H-ween with their dollars. The biggest diff in T-1 gives females a clear edge in decorating their home yards (+14% over males). Males on the other hand dominate in spending $84 vs $65 (advantage is 37%). Tables 1 and 2 show these diffs. Perhaps, the REAL STORY though is that fewer folks will be celebrating H-ween 2015 (vs ’14) AND they will be spending fewer bucks. 5M fewer folks are celebrating (157M, 3% less) with $6.89B being the econ impact (-7% vs 2014). So, what are the reasons that H-ween can NO longer be called America’s fastest growing holiday? Is it b/c the economy is failing? Is it b/c unemployment is too high? Is it b/c the Cubs don’t get a home game in their Wild Card Playoff against the Pirates on Wed? Given the remoteness of YES to our Big 3 Qs, what could it be? This is the H-ween of Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Kim Davis, (KY court clerk who refused marriage licenses to same-sex couples) Caitlyn (Bruce) Jenner and Dr Palmer (The dentist who killed Cecil the Lion)! Other popular costumes will include the likenesses of Speaker John Boehner and The NY Pizza Rat, (who YouTubed to popularity) by carrying a piece of pizza downstairs. (This list provided courtesy of Heather Holeman, KFOR, OKCity.) Of Course, it is “THE TRUMP EFFECT” with help from his bud HILLARY, et al explains everything in the last ½ of 2015 and 2016 as long as it lasts! GO DONALD! Congrats on your H-ween impact. Good luck with the US economy!

 

T-3: A Comparison of the Growth % of Our Major Holidays from 2010 to till Now (2015)
Holidays 2010 2014 2015 Δ 14-15 Δ 10-15
B$$1 B$$1 B$$1 %s %s
Spr Bowl1        8.87      12.36      14.31 15.77% 61.36%
St Pats1        3.44        4.77        4.63 -2.94% 34.59%
V-Day1      14.10      17.30      18.90 9.25% 34.04%
Easter1      13.03      15.90      16.37 2.96% 25.64%
M-Day1      14.59      19.85      21.17 6.62% 45.07%
F-Day1        9.81      12.47      12.68 1.66% 29.20%
BTS1      21.35      26.54      24.87 -6.29% 16.49%
H-Ween1        5.80        7.40        6.89 -6.89% 18.79%
Xmas1     533.11     616.90 641.582 4.00% 20.35%
1 From NRF’s Survey 2 Est. based on current strength of economy

 

The Nat’l Retail Fed predicts sales for 8 major holidays (and the BTS season) on a yearly basis. T-1 lists those 9 major selling/buying events totaling over $760B for 2015. The smallest being St Pat’s Day (about $4¾ B in March or 3/5 of 1% of our holiday total). The Xmas Season on the other hand is a robust 84% of that total. H-ween (our featured holiday) is ONLY a shade over 9/10 of 1% of the $761.40 B total. The story here is that H-ween is NO longer our fastest growing holiday (AND has NEGATIVE GROWTH vs ’14). Given the data of T-3 the fastest growing holiday, whether 1yr ∆ or 5yr ∆ goes to the Super Bowl. We do find it somewhat perplexing though that both BTS and H-ween show NEGATIVE GROWTH yr over yr (2014 vs 2015). While neither may be viewed as any type of a predictor of X-mas sales both are NEGATIVE! BOTH ARE NEGATIVE!! WOW! BOTH ARE NEGATIVE!!!

For the purposes of spending, H-ween is a 3 1/20 headed MONSTER. In order of spending size, Costumes are 37%, Candy is 31%, Decorations are 27% AND Greeting Cards are 5%. This $6.9B holiday means that H-ween celebrants will avg $74 1/3 per adult. T-4 gives us the data.

Given our interest in H-ween costumes (see above), we imagine that Frozen’s Elsa, the Minions, Han Solo and anything Star Wars will be hot this season. Petstuming will be populated by “Pumpkins”, Batmans and Witches (Felicia Graff, AdAge)

Table 5 tells us which of the Big 3 1/20 will take the biggest hit this coming H-ween. W/O question, CANDY is the winner. Whether it is Dr Palmer or all other dentists, you can hear the joy rattling in their silent drills with almost 1/4 less spending on cavity-ing teeth this H-ween. (us 2014). Also, 9% fewer bucks will be spent on costumes and 7% less on house decorations. (Given our estimation of $600M lbs of candy being purchased last H-ween, we now estimate that it will, be ONLY 475M lbs± this H-ween.)

T-6 simply tells us that almost 50% of all H-ween shoppers will visit Discounters with 1/3 shopping at Specialty Stores, ¼ at Grocers, 1/5 at Dept Stores & 1/6 Online. B/t 8% and 12% of all H-ween shoppers will shop at Craft, Thrift, Drug, Clothing and Greeting Cards stores, each.

 

 

T-4: H-Ween Spending by Category
Costumes   % of TOT
Net Avg: $27.33   ——–
Tot Estm Spend: $2.53 B 36.72%
Candy  
Net Avg: $23.10   ——–
Tot Estm Spend: $2.14 B 31.06%
Decorations  
Net Avg: $20.34   ——–
Tot Estm Spend: $1.88 B 27.28%
Greeting Cards  
Net Avg: $3.57   ——–
Tot Estm Spend: $.33 B 4.79%
TOTAL  
Net Avg: $74.34   ——–
Tot Estm Spend: $6.89 B 100.00%

 

T-5: H-Ween Spending ($ B)
Growth by Category ’14 vs ’15
Category 2014 2015 Δ
Costumes  $ 2.79 2.53 -9.3%
Candy  $ 2.79 2.15 -23.3%
Decorating  $ 2.02 1.88 -6.9%
Greeting Cards  $ 0.35 0.33 -5.3%
Totals  $ 7.40 6.89 -6.9%
$PECIAL HOLIDAY GAS-O-METER UPDATE

Plummeting PUMP prices are getting a lot of media attention these days. Suffice it to say that from mid Oct to Xmas that we expect that US drivers will save an avg of 78½¢ per gal.  A fam of 4 with 2 drivers should be able to enjoy a $172.50 gas “rebate” of sorts. (1100 miles per driver @ 25 mpg saving 78½¢ a gal [vs 2014 prices] for mos). Our estimates depend on the 4cast of gas price predictions being realized. Our message to drivers is to plan for your “gas rebate”. Our mythical fam of 4 should be able to buy 3 or 6 fairly nice holiday gifts for somebody. Over the 10 wk designated period Americans will save $8.5 B± in reduced gas prices. HOW WILL THEY USE IT? GOOD LUCK!

T-6: H-Ween Spending                         
by Spending Venue
Discount Store 47%
Speciality Store 33%
Grocery Store 25%
Dept. Store 19%
Online 17%
Crafts/Fabric Stores 12%
Thrift Stores 10%
Drug Store 10%
Clothing Store 9%
Greeting Card Store 8%

 

 

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About bernacmd

For over 24 years, University of Detroit Mercy Marketing Professor Michael Bernacchi, Ph.D., J.D, has produced "uNDER tHE mIKE-rOSCOPE", a newsletter discussing current "marketing and advertising¹s bends, trends & ends." A well-know fixture in Detroit and national media, UDM's marketing guru has made several appearances on CNN's "Talk Back Live," the Voice of America worldwide radio network (VOA), ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and on the pages of Sports Illustrated, Time, TV Guide, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, to name a few. At University of Detroit Mercy, he has taught courses in Marketing Management, Consumer Behavior, Marketing Communications, Research and Corporate Social Responsibility and Sports and Entertainment Marketing. Michael Bernacchi can be reached at 313-993-1116 or bernacmd@udmercy.edu. Please appropriately attribute the following for their work on uNDER tHE mIKE-rOSCOPE: Yen Ju Lee Robert Rouse Vidhyasagar Natarajan Eric Baumgardner & Ian Young
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